The world has once again been pushed into uncertainty. At the time of writing, the Iranian war is escalating, with signals from the Trump administration, Iran, and global media shifting daily. The only constant is volatility. Still, patterns from past crises help us anticipate the implications for German and European tourism.
NB: This is an article from berner+becker, one of our Expert Partners
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Instability reshapes travel behaviour. As seen during COVID-19 pandemic, historical demand patterns quickly lose relevance. Hotels must revisit source markets, recalibrate pricing, and adjust distribution strategies with speed and flexibility.
Travel to the GCC and hubs such as United Arab Emirates has sharply declined. With key stopover routes disrupted and limited direct connections to Asia, airfares are rising – further suppressing long-haul demand. At the same time, softer sentiment toward the U.S. is reinforcing intra-European travel.
Structurally, the European Union receives around 50 million annual arrivals from Asia and the Middle East, while Europeans generate roughly 75 million outbound trips to those regions. If outbound weakens, a portion of that demand is likely to be redirected domestically or within Europe – benefiting regional destinations.
However, macroeconomics remain a counterforce. Higher energy prices risk fuelling inflation, weakening consumer confidence, and tightening travel budgets. Yet recent experience shows that consumers tend to protect holiday spending, even under pressure.
In the short term, signals are positive: areas like Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern are reporting a strong Easter season, and airlines such as Norwegian have announced 120 additional Easter flights from the Nordics to Southern Europe. Summer dynamics are less affected outbound – given climate limitations in Asia and the Middle East – but inbound from these regions will likely soften. If the situation persists, winter could see additional upside for European destinations.
For hoteliers, the takeaway is clear: expect volatility, act quickly, and position for a potential shift toward regional demand. Stay optimistic, this could mean an upswing for European and German tourism performance – time will tell. Until then we cross our fingers for a stable economy and world peace.
