As the industry looks ahead to 2026, uncertainty remains a constant. Inflationary pressure, evolving guest behavior, rapid AI adoption, and shifting ownership expectations are converging to reshape how hotels operate and compete.

Drawing on our recent discussion with Connor Vanderholm of Topline Revenue, one of our Expert Partners, three clear predictions are emerging that hotel general managers and commercial leaders should be preparing for now.

Here is the full interview and we have summarised some of the key points below.

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1. The Revenue Analyst Role Will Continue to Disappear

Revenue analyst roles have been shrinking steadily since 2021, and that trend is unlikely to reverse in 2026. Traditionally, analysts supported revenue managers by compiling reports, managing data-heavy tasks, and implementing tactical changes in systems. Today, technology – particularly AI-driven revenue platforms – performs those same functions faster, more accurately, and at far lower cost.

This shift is not about reducing headcount for its own sake; it is about efficiency. Automated systems can pull from multiple data sources, generate cleaner insights, and eliminate the manual, repetitive work that once justified analyst roles. For many organizations, these roles have become operational bottlenecks rather than value drivers.

The implication for GMs and revenue leaders is clear: future revenue teams will be leaner and more strategic. Talent pipelines will increasingly draw from operations, sales, or marketing rather than traditional analyst tracks. Developing commercial acumen, stakeholder communication skills, and business context will matter more than report-building expertise.

2. Flat Revenue Growth Will Put Pressure on Profitability

Industry forecasts point to flat occupancy and, at best, modest ADR growth in 2026. When inflation continues to outpace topline growth, real revenue declines – and profitability shrinks. Owners do not spend revenue; they spend profits. As margins tighten, scrutiny on management companies and service providers will intensify.

The first response in these environments is often structural change: management companies change hands, contracts are renegotiated, and outsourced or fractional services – such as revenue management or marketing – are cut. This pattern is familiar from the pandemic and continues to repeat in slower cycles.

For hotel leaders, this creates a paradox. The very functions that protect profitability – revenue optimization, demand strategy, and distribution discipline – are often the first to be reduced. Short-term cost cutting may provide temporary relief, but it often leaves properties unprepared when demand rebounds. Strong operators will resist reactionary decisions and focus on sustaining commercial capability through the cycle.

3. OTAs Will Gain Even More Loyalty and Market Share

Despite years of effort to drive direct bookings, online travel agencies are positioned to gain further ground in 2026. OTA loyalty ecosystems – such as Expedia’s One Key and Booking.com’s Genius – now rival or exceed brand loyalty programs in scale and perceived value, particularly for infrequent travelers.

AI acceleration is amplifying this advantage. Major OTAs already integrate directly with large language models, enabling travelers to plan entire trips – hotel, flight, car, and perks – with a single prompt. These recommendations consistently surface OTA inventory, not brand websites.

For independents and brands alike, this raises difficult questions. Competing head-to-head with OTAs on technology, loyalty, and AI distribution is increasingly unrealistic. The focus instead must shift to smarter channel management, realistic expectations around direct share, and clear-eyed decisions about where differentiation truly exists.

Preparing for 2026

The common thread across these predictions is structural change. Technology, economics, and distribution power are reshaping the industry faster than traditional operating models can adapt. Hotel general managers and commercial leaders who acknowledge these shifts – and proactively adjust team structures, owner conversations, and channel strategies – will be better positioned to protect profitability in an increasingly complex environment.

The crystal ball may not be perfect, but the signals are already clear