Let’s be honest – pricing mistakes don’t usually come from bad data. They come from bad assumptions. And most of those assumptions stem from the gap between what revenue managers wish the market was doing and what it’s actually doing. That gap? It’s expensive.
NB: This is an article from Topline Revenue, one of our Expert Partners
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Maybe your BAR rate is still anchored to a peak-season weekend from two years ago. Maybe you’re clinging to a corporate strategy that worked pre-COVID but now just sits untouched in a shared drive. Or maybe your team is still talking about “rate integrity” while unsold inventory quietly stacks up midweek.
Wishful thinking is not a pricing strategy. It’s a distraction. And in a market this dynamic, it’s one you can’t afford.
Stop Using Last Year’s Playbook for This Year’s Demand
Relying on last year’s numbers as a pricing shortcut? That’s not strategy, that’s autopilot.
Historical Data ≠ Current Market
One of the most common traps in hotel pricing is the habit of defaulting to historical performance. Sure, past data can highlight trends, but blindly copying last year’s rate structure (plus a token 5% “for inflation”) isn’t forecasting. It’s wishful thinking with a spreadsheet.
The Market’s Moved – Have You?
Demand drivers are constantly shifting. Here’s what could be different this year:
- A new boutique hotel has entered your comp set and pulled 20% of your direct business
- The city lost a major annual conference that used to fill your shoulder nights
- Consumer behavior has shifted: shorter booking windows, mobile-first bookings, fewer loyalty-driven decisions
If you’re pricing like it’s still last July – but your current pace, pickup, and segment mix are telling a different story – you’re not staying the course. You’re ignoring it.
What Real Strategy Looks Like
Strong revenue management means reacting to what’s happening now, not just what has happened before.
That starts with:
- Pickup curves by segment
- Booking window analysis – are guests booking later? Earlier? Different channels?
- Channel mix shifts – are OTAs heavier this year? Are direct bookings down?
- Event-layering insights – is compression coming from leisure? Groups? Nothing?
And don’t wait for STR to tell you what already happened – by then, it’s too late to change anything.
The best revenue strategies aren’t built off memory. They’re built off momentum.
