If your forecast keeps missing, it’s not because the RMS glitched or the spreadsheet forgot to carry the one. It’s because the way you’re building the forecast is outdated.
NB: This is an article from Topline Revenue, one of our Expert Partners
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Hotels are still treating forecasting like a historical reenactment – just take last year’s number, apply a “reasonable” bump, tweak the segments a bit, and hope demand behaves.
Spoiler: demand doesn’t care about your spreadsheet. It’s evolved. If your forecast hasn’t, it’s going to keep missing.
Where Most Hotels Go Wrong
YOY Isn’t a Forecast. It’s a Reference Point.
Forecasting off last year’s pace or performance is fine – if this year looks anything like last year. But that’s rarely the case.
- Events have shifted dates.
- Comps have changed strategies.
- Booking windows have compressed.
- Segments are behaving differently.
Yet too many hotels are still using YOY as a baseline without adjusting for why last year looked the way it did. That citywide you had in June? It’s not back. That revenge-travel bump last summer? Gone.
Stop forecasting like history repeats. It rhymes, maybe – but it rarely duplicates.
Forecasting to Budget? You’re Forecasting to a Fiction.
This one’s brutal: when the forecast is reverse-engineered to make the budget work.
Ownership wants $185 ADR and 78% occupancy in September. So, the forecast says… $185 and 78%.
But what does current pace say? What does comp pricing say? Are you on track by segment? Doesn’t matter, because the forecast “has to” match budget.
A real forecast reflects reality, not expectation. If your forecast can’t tell the truth because it’s trying to justify a top-line goal, you’re setting everyone up to fail – quietly and expensively.
Segment Blindness Kills Accuracy
If you’re still forecasting total rooms and RevPAR only, you’re missing the real story. Today’s forecasts need to be segment-led.
- Transient isn’t pacing like it did last year.
- Corporate’s still soft – or showing up late.
- Groups are committing short-lead and picking up even shorter.
- OTA mix is heavier than you want to admit.
If your corporate pace is behind 20% but OTA is up 30%, your top-line forecast might “look fine” – but your net revenue won’t be.
Segment-level pacing isn’t optional anymore. It’s the only way to spot real trends – and to adjust your pricing, marketing, and inventory strategy before it’s too late.
