Since March of last year, the Koddi team has been tracking hotel demand and recovery trends closely.
NB: This is an article from Koddi
This past month, we’ve seen optimistic movements in both hotel demand (searches) and the rate of new COVID-19 cases. Below we break down the top trends and updates by region.
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In the U.S., we’re at demand levels that we haven’t seen since late summer 2019. At this rate, demand is likely to surpass 2019 peak levels in the next couple of months. This surge is mainly due to the increased vaccination rates and states reopening, along with an uptick in searches for Memorial Day weekend. The spike in air travel and hotel bookings for the holiday weekend marks a return to typical patterns. It is an excellent indication that we will see similar demand spikes for July 4th and Labor Day later this summer.
- The week of 5/17 hit a high point in demand for 2021, the highest since August 2019.
- Demand for the same week was up 10.1% compared to the same period in 2019.
- The rate of new cases has dropped by double-digits for four consecutive weeks.
- The 8 to 30-day ABW bucket has reclaimed the highest share of search volume, a positive indicator that demand patterns are returning to normal.
In Europe, we see a similar story. After the third wave of COVID-19 that lasted through mid-April, the daily rate of cases has since plummeted and sparked an increase in demand. The drop in cases coupled with eased restrictions and seasonal demand all point to continued recovery.
- Europe has seen sustained growth in demand for the first time since November 2020.
- Demand has increased for seven consecutive weeks, with the past five being double-digit growth.
- In just over four weeks, Europe dropped from nearly 250,000 new cases per day to just over 70,000 cases. With outbreaks seemingly under control, we expect demand to continue to increase into summer.
- While demand has seen a very positive uptick, Europe remains down 35% vs. the same period in 2019.
The APAC region shows signs that the most recent outbreak is close to under control, but that has not yet translated into increased hotel demand. Demand for 2021 briefly went over 2019 levels for parts of April and early May but has since seen significant drops. If the rate of cases continues on its current path, we should see this trend turn around and demand return at or above pre-COVID levels.
- APAC has continued to struggle with COVID outbreaks. There have been significant declines in the rate of cases over the past two weeks, but demand is yet to respond after peaking in early May.
- YoY demand for the past week in APAC is up 120%, but compared to 2019, demand has dipped by 64%.
Our team will continue to keep a close eye on the data and emerging trends and report on any important updates as they become available.