Germany had its first confirmed case of coronavirus on the 27th of January in Munich.
NB: This is an article from OTA Insight
At the end of February and the beginning of March, multiple cases were detected in Baden-Württemberg which were linked to the Italian outbreak as well as a large cluster of infections from a carnival event in Heinsberg, North Rhine-Westphalia. ITB Berlin, one of the world’s largest travel trade shows, expecting more than 170,000 visitors from over 180 countries was cancelled on the 28th of February. From this moment, it slowly became clear that Covid-19 was likely to have a substantial impact on hotels tourism businesses in Germany.
In the following, we will have a look at hotel open rates and rate developments throughout Germany as per the examples of Berlin, Cologne, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich.
Finally, we will have a detailed look at demand levels throughout the rest of 2020 and the first half of 2021.
Germany Reopening/Development Timeline:
- 20th April 2020, Initial easing of coronavirus measures: home improvement, bicycle stores, car dealerships, hairdressers as well as all shops of a size of up 800 square meters are allowed to re-open
- 27th April – 4th May 2020, Schools are starting to re-open in several states. All German states make protective masks in public mandatory.
- 11th May 2020, all stores, shopping malls etc. are allowed to re-open. When visiting, masks are mandatory as they are when using public transport.
- 11th – 18th May, restaurants are allowed to re-open if guidelines are followed.
- 16th May 2020, The German Bundesliga resumes behind ‘closed doors’ as the first European football league.
- 15th – 20th May 2020, The majority of German states suspend quarantine rules for EU travellers.
- 15th – 30th May 2020, Hotels are allowed to re-open for domestic as well as international travellers. Hessen, Thuringia and Saxony were the first ones to open on the 15th of May. Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria were last on 30th of May.
When looking at the re-opening timeline in Germany as a whole it is important to note that due to the German federal and state system there are different rules in each state, resulting in broad ranges for re-opening dates.
In a global analysis published by the Deep Knowledge Group, Germany currently ranks second, right after Switzerland with regards to its “COVID-19 Safety Ranking”:
Hotel Opening Statistics throughout the Crisis
Throughout the crisis, up to 61% of hotels in major German cities closed their doors for a period of time. Especially in mid and end of April two markets saw a significant decrease of hotel availability: 45% in Frankfurt and 61% in Hamburg. Berlin, Cologne and Munich saw an average of 55% percent of closed properties during this time.
From Monday the 4th of May onwards there was continuous improvement in availability throughout the month of May. At this point in time, Hamburg recorded the least hotels open at 43% while Frankfurt was leading the field at 54% open properties. Back then, the 1st of June was targeted by all markets as the date to aim for when re-opening (around 90% open availability).
Looking at this snapshot, it is also clear that Monday the 11th and 18th were targeted by several hotels as prospective opportunities for a re-opening with Cologne taking over the lead from Frankfurt with availability of 69% and 75%. In the above graph, slight dips in availability can be found for Friday and Saturday arrival dates. While hotels were continuously re-opening availability for weekdays, this is likely to be caused by either hotels closing for weekends due to low leisure demand or length of stay (LOS) restrictions such as a minimum 2 night stay imposed by revenue managers. The latter is usually a practice for high demand days and there is a chance some previously set LOS restrictions had not been removed. This pattern for weekends was particularly strong in Berlin and Hamburg. While Frankfurt and Cologne show slight changes for these dates, weekend availability in Munich appears to be untouched.
