An updated lodging forecast released today by PwC US expects average daily rate (“ADR”) to drive revenue per available room (“RevPAR”) increases in a more meaningful way through the second-half of 2015, and into 2016. Recent performance of the lodging industry has generally met industry expectations, and during the second quarter, ADR growth drove RevPAR increases to a larger degree than in recent quarters.
PwC finds that lodging demand trends in the US have been robust, with both transient and group travel occupancy levels increasing 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, during the first-half of the year, contributing to peak occupancy levels for US hotels. PwC expects this positive momentum in demand to continue for the remainder of 2015, supporting a RevPAR increase of 6.9 percent in 2015. In 2016, PwC expects RevPAR to grow 5.9 percent, driven by ADR.
The estimates from PwC are based on a quarterly econometric analysis of the lodging sector, using an updated forecast released by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC in July, and historical statistics supplied by STR and other data providers. Macroeconomic Advisers expects real gross domestic product (“GDP”) to increase 2.0 percent in 2015, followed by a 2.9 percent increase in 2016, measured on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis.
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