New hotel rooms coming onto the U.S. market shouldn’t be a concern for established hotel operators because demand will continue to exceed moderating new-supply levels through 2019, according to CBRE Hotels’ Americas Research’s recently released September 2018 Hotel Horizons® forecast report.
CBRE Hotels Research forecasts that supply will peak at a 2.0 percent gain in 2018 and then stabilize at the long-run average of 1.9 percent for the next two years. Further, the number of projects entering all phases of the development pipeline is declining.
“On a broad national basis, the supply increases have been surpassed by lodging accommodation demand growth for the past eight years, and this trend is forecast to continue through 2019,” said R. Mark Woodworth, senior managing director of CBRE Hotels’ Americas Research. “However, when you look at the projected 2019 performance of the 60 major U.S. markets in our Hotel Horizons® universe, you can clearly see the impact of new lodging supply at the local level.”
For 2019, CBRE is forecasting a very slight (0.02 percent) increase in the nation’s occupancy level. Conversely, occupancy is forecast to decline in 47 of the 60 Horizons markets covered by CBRE. A primary difference among markets gaining occupancy and those losing it: anticipated levels of new supply. The 47 markets forecast to register declines in occupancy in 2019 will see an average 3.8 percent gain in supply from new rooms. The 13 anticipated to gain occupancy will see only 2.5 percent supply growth.
“Not only does the change in supply affect the outlook for local market occupancy levels, but it impacts hoteliers pricing power, as well,” Woodworth said, explaining that supply growth often leads to shrinking gains in pricing. For 2019, the 47 markets forecast to experience a decline in occupancy are projected to achieve an increase in average daily rate (ADR) of 2.1 percent. The ADR gain is expected to be larger – 2.5 percent – for the 13 markets forecast to see occupancy increases next year.
Combining the expected changes in occupancy and ADR, the 2019 forecast RevPAR growth for the 47 occupancy declining markets is 1.2 percent, well short of the 2.9 percent RevPAR increase forecast for the 13 others.
The ADR Paradox
While the trajectory of occupancy levels is pointing downward for the majority of markets, the occupancy levels still are forecast to be at, or near, all-time record highs.
